Alex Pereira will be stepping back into the octagon to defend his UFC light heavyweight title in Las Vegas. And as a build-up to that explosive bout, we have as usual fights in different categories. My main focus at this time is on the Brazilian duel between Amanda “Amandinha” Lemos and rising star Iasmin Lucindo in the strawweight division at UFC 313. I’ve been breaking down this fight intensively, and I’m here to present some betting opportunities for you guys.
The Experienced Veteran: Amanda Lemos
Amanda Lemos (14-4-1 MMA) is also very familiar with the spotlight of the octagon. A Brazilian combatant, the 37-year-old veteran has carved out a career in the strawweight division as a fighter with explosive power and a finishing game that never quits. With her professional record in mind, a very huge percentage of her wins, 8 out of 14, to be specific, have come through knockout or TKO. This is a testament to her striking proficiency and finishing technique.
Lemos has survived a gauntlet of upper-level competition within the UFC. While she has been beaten by best-level competitors like Jessica Andrade and Weili Zhang, they were both past or current champions and bouts which have no doubt hardened her up and provided her with invaluable experience at the highest level. Recent performances may not be exactly what fans would have expected from a finisher like Amandinha, however, even in defeats she still lost with pride and gave tough time to her adversaries. She currently ranks #5 on the Worldwide Strawweight chart.
The bout to see: Iasmin Lucindo
Opposite is Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0 MMA), a hungry and talented upstart from the next generation of MMA stars in Brazil. At only 23 years old, Lucindo has already amassed considerable experience in her professional career. She is also a style fighter who is aggressive, particularly in the way that she strikes, and is willing to bring it to the other fighter. Lucindo’s record also demonstrates an even finish rate, with 8 KO/TKO and 3 submissions, demonstrating excellent diversity of skill for a young athlete. She currently ranks #7 on the Worldwide Strawweight chart.
Lucindo’s UFC tenure is only just beginning, yet she has already given us glimmers of glory. After her 4th career loss in 2019, she rebounded strongly with seven wins in a row, spanning across 3 years, 4 of which were by TKO. Thus, demonstrating she could learn and evolve within the UFC framework. These have helped bolster her confidence and place her well on the watch list as one of the rising stars of the strawweight division.
Clash of Styles and Key Matchup Dynamics
Lemos possesses a panoply of top-shelf experience, knockout science, and previous success against top-flight challengers. Lucindo is a young fighter bursting with energy and flashy strikers’ complement, seeking to defeat a legend, making her inexperience an obsolete element.
Striking prowess is where the fight will likely be won or lost. Lemos’s power is not in question. When she connects, opponents tend to know it, and her finishing percentage is proof of that. Lucindo is also a fierce striker, but she may need to be careful of Lemos’s more powerful hands. Lucindo’s hand speed and footwork could be the difference in avoiding Lemos’s power shots and landing her own combinations. But exchanging long striking exchanges with Lemos is a risky game.
Grappling and Clinch Work is another area of battle. Both have a grappling background, but Lemos’ Luta Livre background could give her a slight edge when it comes to controlling the clinch and possibly being able to shoot in the takedown. Lucindo will have to be good defensively in the grappling realm and not get herself into long grappling exchanges where Lemos can make the most of her strength and experience.
The Experience Factor: This is likely Lemos’s strongest suit. She has been in the trenches battling the best of the best in the world, witnessing the pressure and the little things that come with high-level UFC fights. Lucindo, while talented, is still relatively new to this level of competition. That experience gap may prove to be the difference, particularly in the later rounds if the fight does go beyond two rounds.
Prediction: Lemos by TKO
Regardless of Lucindo’s potential and on-rising trend, I’m forecasting Amanda Lemos to defeat this fight via TKO in round two. Here’s why:
First, Lemos has considerable knockout power in her fists, a factor that shouldn’t be ignored in MMA. If she can catch Lucindo cleanly, it might be a short evening for the upstart fighter.
Secondly, Lemos has consistently pushed past the higher-ranked competition and involved in UFC main cards and title defenses. This experience will be a blessing in weathering the pressure of facing an opposed hungry prospect such as Lucindo.
Thirdly, Lemos is a proven finisher, and if she believes that there is an opportunity to finish the fight, she will take it. Lucindo, while resilient, has shown weaknesses in her striking defense before.
Although Lucindo can surprise, and her hunger and youth mean she’s a very dangerous opponent, I believe Amanda Lemos’s experience, power, and proven finishing ability will be the difference here in this strawweight fight at UFC 313. Watch for Lemos to weather the early storm, impose her distance in round two, and take out Lucindo by TKO, further entrenching herself as a divisional top contender. Of course, MMA is unpredictable, and anything can happen once the cage door is closed, but based on my analysis, the intelligent bet is on “Amandinha” Lemos at an odd of 2.17. Register on the BettingSoftware today and fight your way into consistent winnings.
